2026 Automotive Market Trends and Dealer Strategies

The Q4 2025 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) climbed to 44, up three points from summer lows but still below the growth-positive line of 50. Dealers report thinner grosses, elevated flooring costs, and more price shopping than any time since 2020. Meanwhile, Manheim’s Used Vehicle Value Index ticked up 1.2 points in November—the first back-to-back increase of the year—signaling firmer floors for SUVs and vans just as tax-refund shoppers surface. Layer those national threads with our refreshed December 2025 used car report to see how pricing, inventory, and demand cues shift by segment.

Every state feels these signals differently. Texas rooftops track oil-driven truck demand and 254-county tax logic, Florida dealers juggle tourism surges with hurricane prep, California teams thread CARB audits with aggressive EV incentives, and Georgia stores balance Title Ad Valorem Tax (TAVT) cashflows across Atlanta’s 13 counties. Keep those localized landing pages open as you build the 2026 plan.

Last updated December 12, 2025 with CADSI Q4 data, refreshed Manheim UVVI commentary, and new tax-season + mid-summer playbooks.

Market Outlook and Sales Forecast

The 2026 baseline is cautiously optimistic. S&P Global Mobility now projects 16.1 million U.S. light-vehicle sales (up ~1.5% YoY) assuming APRs settle in the low 6% range by summer. Retail supply sits near 56 days nationally—manageable but uneven, with SUVs and vans back under 40 days in the Sun Belt while EV and luxury inventory remains elevated. Dealers that bundle disciplined pricing automation with proactive credit counseling stand the best chance of keeping grosses steady through the first half of the year.

Forecasted Growth in Car Sales

S&P and Cox both expect a shallow but steady recovery. Retail demand should accelerate in late Q1 as the IRS issues refunds totaling more than $160B, then stabilize once OEM incentives reset for the 2026 model year. Floor this into DealerClick dashboards by:

• Setting MTD and 90-day benchmarks for each segment so tax-season spikes register immediately.
• Tracking application volumes against financing approvals to quantify how 100 bps swings in APR change your per-unit profitability.
• Simulating best/worst-case scenarios inside DealerClick Forecasts, then pushing the plan to buyers and BDC teams weekly.

The Evolution of Consumer Engagement

Consumer search data shows that 71% of in-market shoppers expect transparent pricing, live inventory, and personalized financing in the same session (Google Auto Retail, Oct 2025). Use DealerClick CRM + marketing automation to:

• Trigger nurture sequences that blend OEM incentives, local tax rules, and weather-driven merchandising (e.g., AWD vs. convertible).
• Automatically route geo-specific leads to the nearest /locations/[state] landing page so shoppers see accurate taxes, fees, and compliance cues.
• Score leads based on recency, price sensitivity, and credits claimed so tax refund buyers and summer travelers get the right scripts instantly.

Tax Season 2026 Playbook

Tax season will arrive early again thanks to accelerated IRS processing and states like Texas, Florida, and Georgia issuing refunds before mid-February. Dealers following this cadence outperform:

1. Freeze Q4 data – Snapshot December pricing, grosses, and lead velocity so you can measure immediate deltas once refund checks land.
2. Align bidding + tax automation – Pair DealerClick inventory limits with 254-county taxes in Texas or surtax calculators in Florida before Manheim runs so buyers know the exact landed cost.
3. Bundle down payment helpers – Offer savings match programs or prepaid maintenance credits anchored to refund sizes in your CRM scripts.
4. Refresh compliance guardrails – Ensure every tax-season campaign references location-specific disclosures (TAVT in Georgia, Highway Use Tax in North Carolina, etc.) so lenders and regulators stay satisfied.
5. Publish weekly dashboards – Push a Monday morning DealerClick snapshot that covers days-to-turn, approval rates, and marketing CAC so sales, F&I, and buyers react in sync.

Mid-Summer 2026 Demand Map

July and August bring different headwinds: insurance renewals, storm prep, and model-year changeovers. Translate those cues into three practical moves:

• Heat + hurricane readiness – In Florida and Gulf states, cross-promote service plans, EV battery certifications, and storm continuity workflows to keep vans and SUVs moving even when weather disrupts.
• Mountain + snowbird pivots – For Colorado and New York, build packages that highlight AWD, tire protection, and emissions readiness before travelers trek back for fall.
• EV + luxury remarketing – Mid-summer is when EV and luxury segments historically lag. Use DealerClick remarketing audiences plus EV diagnostics to justify value-add bundles instead of immediate discounting.

The result is a calendar-driven merchandising strategy: tax-season urgency, mid-summer lifestyle bundles, and Q4 holiday messaging all orchestrated through DealerClick automation.

Embracing Future Electric Vehicle Sales

OEM roadmaps show nearly 120 new EV nameplates by the end of 2026, many in truck and crossover silhouettes. Successful rooftops do three things:

1. Train every sales and service advisor on the top five incentives in their state (e.g., California’s CVRP reboot, Colorado’s $5K stackable credit).
2. Use DealerClick EV diagnostics plus Mastermind-style behavior scores to prioritize conquest VINs—especially owners rolling out of 2023 leases.
3. Publish transparent charging + ownership calculators embedded on /products/auto-dealer-websites and /products/auto-dealer-crm workflows so shoppers trust the math.

Inventory Trends and Pricing Strategies

Inventory remains bifurcated. SUVs, vans, and half-ton trucks carry <40 days of supply in the Southeast and Mountain West, while EVs and luxury sedans exceed 75 days in most coastal metros. Bake that into DealerClick rules:

• Dynamic pricing fences – Raise or hold pricing whenever segment supply in a state drops below 35 days; loosen when EV supply tops 80 days but only if gross-per-lead stays healthy.
• Reconditioning prioritization – Tag units with high-weather risk (hail, hurricane, snow) and push them through make-ready first so photo lots and digital merch stay fresh.
• Stateful merchandising – Use /locations/[state] metadata to call out tax benefits, emissions requirements, or ag exemptions depending on where the buyer sits.

State of Leasing & OEM Incentives

Leasing penetration rebounded to 24% in September 2025 and could flirt with 27% by late 2026 as OEMs clear EV and luxury supply. Keep your team aligned by:

• Building lease conquest dashboards that compare matured leases vs. inbound allocations by ZIP.
• Tagging OEM incentives inside DealerClick so F&I uses the right stack (APR buydowns vs. loyalty cash) based on geography.
• Using /products/auto-dealer-crm automation to trigger renewal outreach 180, 120, and 60 days before maturity, with localized compliance copy baked in.

Embracing Transformation in the Automotive Industry

The next 12 months reward dealers who accept that gross compression is permanent but margin control is optional. Pair predictive analytics, geo-personalized content, and disciplined workflows to stay ahead of every curveball—rates, weather, incentives, or compliance.

State landing pages for 2026 strategy

• Texas dealer software: Keep TxDMV e-filing, oil-patch demand, and 254-county taxes synchronized with your pricing rules.
• Florida dealer software: Blend hurricane continuity, surtax calculators, and hybrid merchandising into every campaign.
• California dealer software: Align CARB reporting, multilingual EV messaging, and CDTFA audits with your marketing sprints.
• Colorado dealer software: Use snow-season inventory insights, emissions tracking, and EV credits to sharpen AWD + hybrid offers.
• Georgia dealer software: TAVT, emissions, and Atlanta metro demand data should drive both tax-season and mid-summer merchandising.

Want these insights piped directly into DealerClick dashboards, CRM scripts, and marketing automations? Let’s map your 2026 plan together.